Welcome to the Buffalo County Economic Pulse report where we break down the latest trends shaping the economic landscape of Kearney and Buffalo County.

This interactive snapshot is designed to empower businesses, policymakers, and residents with the insights they need to make informed, data-driven decisions.

Take a look at the data, then skip down to read Trevor's Take.

Trevor's Take:

Trevor Lee, President of the Development Council for Buffalo County

December 2025 Economic Indicators

As 2025 draws to a close, Buffalo County’s economy reflects a mix of resilience and caution amid broader national and regional headwinds. While some indicators point to steady local activity, others underscore the challenges of inflation, housing supply constraints, and shifting consumer behavior.

Local Highlights

• Air Travel: Passenger enplanements continue to climb, with 2,126 year-to-date, up from 1,511 in 2024, signaling sustained demand for regional connectivity.
• Retail Sales: September retail sales totaled $91.9 million, slightly below last year’s $92.5 million, suggesting consumers remain active but cautious as inflation pressures persist.
• Vehicle Sales: Auto sales remain a bright spot, reaching $14.4 million in September, up from $13.3 million a year ago.
• Lodging Taxes: Tourism continues to support the local economy. October lodging tax collections hit $145,374, up from $140,033 in 2024. Year-to-date totals stand at $1.63 million, a 5% increase over last year.
• Housing Market: November saw 24 homes sold, down slightly from 25 in 2024. Year-to-date sales total 275, a notable decline from 329 last year. Inventory remains tight, with most transactions in the $250K–$325K range.
  Building activity also slowed: 12 permits were issued in November (down from 23 last year), and housing unit starts fell to 6 for the month. Year-to-date, 82 units have been added—well below 2024’s 140.
• Labor Market: Buffalo County’s labor force edged up 0.2% to 29,316, while unemployment ticked up to 2.4% from 2.2% a year ago—still well below national averages.

Regional & National Trends

• Inflation & Tax Burden: Persistent inflation continues to squeeze household budgets and, in some states, increase effective tax burdens due to unindexed income tax brackets. States that fail to adjust for inflation face “bracket creep,” disproportionately impacting middle-income earners.
• Manufacturing & Rural Economy: Creighton’s Mid-America Business Conditions Index remains near growth neutral, with manufacturing shedding jobs for the seventh consecutive month. Rural Mainstreet indicators signal ongoing weakness, including falling farmland prices and farm equipment sales.
• National Outlook: NABE forecasts 1.8% GDP growth for 2025, with inflation expected to average 3.0%, above the Fed’s 2% target. Mortgage rates may ease slightly as 10-year Treasury yields hover near 4.0%, but housing affordability remains a concern. Consumer confidence is mixed—strong current sentiment tempered by a weaker outlook.

What It Means for Buffalo County

Local fundamentals remain solid, supported by tourism and auto sales, but housing supply constraints and inflationary pressures could temper growth in early 2026. Businesses should prepare for continued cost sensitivity among consumers and monitor interest rate trends as the Fed signals further rate cuts.